By Lisa Curtis
Indian election results will not be in for another six weeks, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems on track to win the most parliamentary seats, making it likely that Narendra Modi will be the country’s next prime minister. With Modi’s rise to power comes an increased likelihood of greater Indo-Pakistani tensions and potential for military escalation, especially if a major terrorist attack occurs in India.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s personal commitment to maintaining peaceful ties with Islamabad, despite attacks in India over the last several years that were often traced back to Pakistan-based groups, has kept bilateral ties in check. Aware of the deteriorating security situation inside Pakistan, Singh gave Pakistani leaders the benefit of the doubt, calculating that India’s interests were better served trying to engage with Pakistani civilian leaders rather than allowing hostility to define the relationship.
There are indications a BJP-led government would be less patient with Pakistan than its Congress party predecessor. The BJP leadership last year condemned the Pakistan parliament for passing a resolution against the hanging of Afzal Guru, a militant from Kashmir that was convicted for his role in the December 2001 attack on the Indian parliament. In response to Pakistan’s action, BJP leaders demanded New Delhi downgrade relations with Islamabad and suspend confidence-building measures.
Source: nationalinterest.org
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