For the next few days, the administration, Congress, and the commentariat will inevitably vent their outrage at, and propose various ways of pushing back against, what they all consider Russia’s blatant violation of international law in and around Crimea and Putin’s duplicity and hypocrisy. But eventually, we will need to find a political way to resolve the Ukraine crisis, sooner rather than later, one would hope, if we want to stop short of an unpredictable test of arms or a set of sanctions with potentially devastating consequences for fragile economies in Europe and Russia. In particular, we will need to find face-saving steps that will minimally satisfy the interests of each party and allow them to back down from confrontation. Two insights—one about Russia, the other about Ukraine—could allow us to fashion a solution consistent with our principles and interests.
First, Russia. Putin’s strategic ambition is to create a Eurasian Union, an entity that would secure Russia’s preeminence throughout the former Soviet space, historically the foundation of its geopolitical heft. Without Ukraine, the strategically located former Soviet republic with the greatest economic potential after Russia itself, the Eurasian Union makes no sense. Russia could hold onto the Crimea and perhaps some other Ukrainian provinces, but if the rest of Ukraine then moved into closer economic, political, and security alignment with Europe, that would mark a colossal setback for Putin’s dreams.
Source: nationalinterest.org
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