By Jennifer McCoy, Michael McCarthy
On this first anniversary of Hugo Chávez’s death and in the wake of the sudden collapse of the Ukrainian government, predictions are swirling that Venezuela’s Maduro government could be toppled either by an aggressive protest movement, or by an internal coup within the chavista movement. Neither is likely in the short term. Nevertheless, the state’s heavy-handed response, over a dozen deaths and hundreds of wounded, evoke fearful memories of violent events in Venezuela’s not-too-distant past—social unrest over economic austerity measures during the 1989 Caracazo and the firefight during 2002′s short-lived coup against Hugo Chávez.
In many ways, the current tensions and uncertainty are no surprise. When larger-than-life leaders like Chávez pass away, political mobilization loses its central rallying point for government and opposition. Governments struggle to define and assert their leaderships and opposition parties experiment with different strategies for adapting. This is the structural overlay behind the recent episode of political conflict in Venezuela, where clashes have taken place between opposition movements and the Maduro government.
Source: nationalinterest.org
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