“We think this is a darn good treaty” —James A. Baker III, Secretary of State, July 11, 1991
Thousands of Russian armed forces line up along Ukraine’s border as President Putin declares an obligation to defend Russian citizens. Kiev vows to respond, mobilizing its own army and digging trenches. President Obama warns Putin a “diplomatic path . . . remains possible only if Russia pulls back its troops.” The Pentagon cancels Congressional testimony by NATO’s Supreme Commander, sending him back to Europe due to the “lack of transparency” in Russia’s actions.
The 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), now moribund, was designed to avert precisely this scenario: intimidating mobilizations and potential tank battles on the plains of Europe. If CFE had not been discarded—by Russia with help from NATO—Russia’s deployments would have been notified in detail to treaty partners including Ukraine and NATO states, all of which would have been able to inspect the purported exercises. Urgent talks could have been held under a CFE rubric, with Ukraine and Russia’s other neighbors included, and could have provided the elusive “off-ramp” to deescalate the crisis. Without CFE, Russia is free to engage in aggressive deployments and cat-and-mouse withdrawals and redeployments with no transparency or accountability.
Source: nationalinterest.org
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