Russia’s annexation of Crimea is reprehensible and unjustifiable. Moscow’s actions make a mockery of international norms and understandably are a grave concern to its neighbors and the West. But, odious as the Russian actions are, in the end Russia is the loser, in the short and long term.
At the outset of the Ukrainian crisis in November 2013, Russia had two main goals: 1) prevent Ukraine from signing an agreement with the European Union and 2) make Ukraine part of the Moscow-led Eurasian Customs Union. It failed on both counts. Kiev signed a modified version of the association agreement with the EU in March and the Eurasian Union will not be worth the paper it is written on without Ukraine, the crown jewel, as a member.
Furthermore, as part of its first goal, Russia hoped to prevent Ukraine from tilting politically, culturally, and socially toward the West. Instead, Russia’s invasion of Crimea created an opening for Western influence and assistance in Ukraine and essentially thrust Ukraine into the West’s now-eager arms.
As part of its second goal, Russia had hoped to remain an influential player in domestic Ukrainian affairs. Now, however, with the removal of a significant block of pro-Russian voters in Crimea, Russia’s influence in Ukraine has considerably declined and Ukraine’s parliament is likely to be less inclined toward Russia than it would have been if Crimea had remained part of the country.
Source: nationalinterest.org
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